Mortgage and refinance rates, July 11

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Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates rose again on Friday. And that for a classic 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, it is again dangerously close to the 6% mark.

So far this morning it seems like mortgage rates could drop today. But that could change over time.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage rate APR* To change
30-year fixed conventional 5.958% 5.993% Unchanged
15-year fixed conventional 5.123% 5.178% Unchanged
20-year fixed conventional 5.944% 6% Unchanged
10-year fixed conventional 5.112% 5.214% -0.05%
30-year fixed FHA 6.047% 6.822% Unchanged
15-year fixed FHA 5.226% 5.715% -0.05%
30-year fixed PV 5.155% 5.373% Unchanged
15-year fixed VA 5.2% 5.572% Unchanged
Pricing is provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

Don’t lock in on a day when mortgage rates look set to drop. My recommendations (below) are intended to provide longer-term suggestions on the general direction of these rates. Thus, they do not change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

If you look back at all the dramatic increases and decreases in mortgage rates over the past six weeks, they more or less cancel each other out. Yes, the underlying trend remains upwards. But it is a much softer rise than at the start of the year.

Nonetheless, my personal longer-term rate lock recommendations should remain:

  • TO BLOCK if closing seven days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 15 days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 30 days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 45 days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 60 days

>Related: 7 tips for getting the best refinance rate

Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here is an overview of the situation this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time last Friday, was:

  • The yield on 10-year treasury bills fell to 2.99% from 3.08%. (Very good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular treasury yields
  • Main stock indices were lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and raises yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are weaker. But it’s an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices fell to $102.81 from $104.11 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a major role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity
  • Gold prices fell to $1,736 from $1,738 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It’s generally better for rates when gold goes up and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates down
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – remained stable at 29 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “greedy” investors cause bond prices to fall (and interest rates to rise) when they leave the bond market and turn to equities, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A movement of less than $20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a change of 1% or less. We therefore only consider significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Market and rate warnings

Prior to the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We are still making daily calls. And are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its former high levels until things stabilize.

So use the markets only as an indication. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied upon. But, with this caveat, mortgage rates are expected to drop today. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Lily ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top tier” borrowers (with great credit scores, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements – although they all generally follow the larger trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rates unchanged
  5. Refinance rates are generally close to purchase rates.

There’s a lot going on right now. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinance rates going up or down?

After five terrible months at the start of the year, mortgage rates have risen more slowly over the past six weeks. In terms of 2022, that counts as a win.

The economic and trade reports due out this week could lead to wild swings in the markets. But we don’t know if this turbulence will last.

The main economic reports this week are the consumer price and producer price indexes for June. Both are indicators of inflation, which is one of the current obsessions of the markets.

Signs that inflation is plateauing or declining should normally push mortgage rates down. But, if reports show it continuing to rise, those rates could climb further.

Also this week, the major banks are expected to start publishing their quarterly results. Analysts are expecting exceptional figures due to the rise in interest rates. And that could put some downward pressure on mortgage rates, but probably not enough to offset the impact of the inflation reports.

Good deals there

Retail banks may be doing well, but mortgage lenders are struggling as new loan applications dwindle. This forces them to be more competitive. Don’t hesitate to take advantage of this by shopping more widely for your next mortgage loan.

And don’t stop there. If you have multiple quotes, negotiate the best possible deal for yourself, pitting lenders against each other. And see if you can afford to buy discount points. These have been exceptionally attractive recently, giving you a bigger than usual discount on your mortgage rate.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more information.

Recent trends

For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new weekly all-time low was set 16 times that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.

Rates then plummeted, moving little for the next eight or nine months. But they started to increase noticeably in September. Unfortunately, they have mostly increased since the start of 2022, although May and June were milder months.

Freddie’s July 7 report places that same weekly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages at 5.3% (with 0.8 fees and points), down compared to 5.70% the previous week. However, this survey will not have taken into account the significant increase of July 6th.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 fee and points”) at close which earn you a lower rate. If you don’t, your rate will be closer to what we and others quote.

Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasts

Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates. .

And here is their current rate forecast for the last three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).

The figures in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Those of Fannie were published on June 16 and those of the MBA on June 10. Freddie’s were released on April 18.

Forecaster Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23
Fannie Mae 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Freddie Mac 4.8% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0%
MBA 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the current crop of predictions could be even more speculative than usual. Recent events certainly make them look like that.

Find your lowest rate today

You should do a lot of comparison shopping no matter what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau states:

“Shopping around for your mortgage can save you real money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the term of your loan.

Mortgage Rate Methodology

Mortgage reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. As we calculate the average of a range of prices, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we calculate the average of the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of daily rates and how they change over time.

The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute advertising for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent company or affiliates.

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